Risk assessment of ships stuck in ice in Arctic ice area based on fuzzy AHP-DEMATEL

Abstract

Aiming at the uncertainty and correlation problems in the risk factor identification process, this paper proposes a fuzzy analytic hierarchy approach based on the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory to determine the importance of risk factors. Considering the fuzziness and randomness in risk assessment, a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on the cloud model is used to quantify the risk of ships getting stuck. The results show that human error and ship failure are the main factors leading to the occurrence of ships stuck in ice. Moreover, environmental factors, such as sea ice thickness and sea ice concentration, are important conditions in the occurrence of an accident. The risk level of ships stuck in ice in the Arctic area during the navigation period is medium, and the risk is acceptable.