Assessment the Land Use Land Cover Change and Urban Sprawl Modelling in Dhanusha District

Abstract

Background:The global population has shifted from an agricultural rural area to urban cities and metropolis, largely after the industrial revolution in 18th century has created a major wave of urbanization. Aim and objective: Analysis method using GIS for identification of LULC change and urban in Dhanusha District of Nepal. Material and Methods: In order to gather data and conduct research, the thesis used remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (IS) methodologies. Using categorization and change analysis of satellite imagery, the LULC alterations were examined. The change in urban sprawl was analyzed using statistical analysis and the future simulation was dine using machine learning of trend and simulation using Cellular Automata (CA) Markov model. Observation and Result: Satellite image analysis for trend analysis of urban sprawl in Dhanusha district was achieved for different six classes; Water, Developed, Sand/Barren, Forest, Shrubland and Cultivated/Planted areas. During the period of 1993 and 2021 the developed areas increased by more than three-fold by 4.9% from 18.33 Sq km. to 76.56 Sq km. The decrease in agricultural land in the same period was 11.4% of the total area from 743.46 Sq km. in 1993 to 608.64 Sq km. in 2021. The developed areas had sprawled around the roadway intersections of the district and mainly concentrated in Janakpur sub metropolitan area. During the period of 1993 to 2013 there was gradual increased in urban areas which peaked after 2013 to 2021. In the simulated image the developed area was 63.77 Sq. Km. and 5.4%. The result of 2003 and 2013 simulation had more accuracy which was used for the simulation of 2033 and 2043. The result showed increase in developed area to 99.52 Sq. Km in 2033 and again increase in developed area in 2043 to 130.58 Sq. Km. Small settlements along the roadway intersections turned into dense settlements during the period.

Conclusion: This study has importance in understanding the future urbanization sprawling patterns following current trend which can be used for proper management and planning of the area to ensure proper infrastructure development and management for sustainable development.