Examining Factors Determining Risks and Uncertainties in Crop Agriculture of Southern Bangladesh: A Principal Component Analysis

Abstract

The present study examined various factors contributing to the risks and uncertainties associated with crop production in Bangladesh agriculture, using a principal component analysis with an orthogonal rotation method. A comprehensive survey involved four hundred farm households selected through multistage random sampling procedure from five districts in Bangladesh. Required data was collected from the chosen respondents using semi-structured questionnaires and administering face-to-face interviews. The survey revealed fifty-five risk factors and ten uncertainties, varying across districts due to climate variability, farmers' socioeconomic standing, vulnerable infrastructures, soil properties, pest and disease outbreaks, and government policies. Results showed that the risk factor analysis identified twelve principal components, with fifty-two individual factors and three removed based on cut-off thresholds, categorized as input, production, climate change, personal, farm, financial, socio-economic, market, investment, policy, political risk, and others. Uncertainty factor analysis identified four principal uncertainties, such as input, yield, pricing, and agricultural policy and global preference uncertainty, which covered ten uncertainties affecting cropping culture within the study area. The Cronbach’s Alpha reliability test eliminated twelve and fourth principal component of risk and uncertainty whereas validity test invalid market, investment, political and other risks but allowed all principal uncertainties. Therefore, we obtained eight principal risks and three principal uncertainties, expressing reliable and valid factors within the study area. The study recommends measures to mitigate these risks, including diversification of crops, crop insurance, diversifying income sources, developing market linkages, improving access to credit and financial services, adopting technology, implementing climate-smart agriculture practices, seeking government support, selecting crops based on local conditions, and managing irrigation. These strategies can help farmers manage risks, increase resilience, and enhance agricultural productivity.