A System Dynamics Modeling Approach to Influences on Iran's Oil Export Growth

Abstract

The Persian Gulf serves as a critical global oil transportation route, connecting the Middle East with other continents, underscoring its pivotal role in ensuring global energy supply. Considering the recent regional tensions and sanctions, this research using a dynamic systems method, deals with a dynamic model to investigate the dynamics and security of maritime transport in the Persian Gulf region. It further explores how the geopolitical positioning of the Persian Gulf influences the attraction of foreign investment and the development of Iran's oil exports. In the course of this research, equations pertinent to the model have been formulated within the Vensim software environment. Extensive simulations were conducted to investigate various scenarios and implement policies as part of the model scenarios. And finally, the recommended solutions include: strengthening regional and international cooperation, diversifying transportation routes, encouraging foreign investment, utilizing and developing innovative security technologies, enhancing training and awareness of security forces, and developing a strong security system to enhance the management of oil transportation security, address security challenges and sanctions, attract foreign investment, and consequently strengthen Iran's oil exports.