Light GBM and SVM algorithms for Predicting Synthetic Load Profiles for Electric Power Distribution System Using a Non-Intrusive Approach

Abstract

Due to related uncertainties brought by changes in energy consumption and the integration of rooftop photovoltaic systems, the accuracy and availability of load profiling data are difficult to achieve. However, project managers and planners use a precise load profile as a crucial tool when determining whether the feeder must be updated or de-loaded. The paper aims to apply a non-intrusive machine learning (ML) technique that predicts the synthetic load profile behavior of an Electric Power Distribution System using a Light Gradient Boosted and Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm. The most effective ML algorithm is chosen, and it has the potential to be assessed and verified using validation curves, residuals model generation, and prediction error metrics based on the following key statistical indicators: Mean Absolute Error, Mean Square Error, Root Mean Square Error, R-Square, Root Mean Squared Logarithmic Error, and Mean Absolute Percentage Error. The most effective ML has the potential to be assessed and verified using validation curves, residual model generation, and prediction error metrics based on the following key statistical indicators. The result shows that the estimation of the Irms avg -based on LightGBM is more accurate than the SVM because of its quick, economical, and difficult to overfit, particularly with high-dimensional data, speed, and efficiency of the MAE (3.0698), MSE (15.2757), RMSE (3.9020), RMSLE (0.1433), and MAPE (0.0049) respectively. Additionally, the machine learning model shows that, when compared to the SVM, the LightGBM model had the highest accurate prediction, with R-Square values of 89.8%, 90.3%, and 88.5% for Irms_A_avg, Irms_B_avg, and Irms_C_avg, respectively for Brakfontein Substation supply region, and best represents a diverse customer base.