Vulnerability assessment method for the aviation support system of warships based on the ECE-FFTA method

Abstract

This research aims to evaluate the damage effect of warships under weapon attacks. Based on the fuzzy set theory, the expert comprehensive evaluation (ECE) method and fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) are combined to establish a vulnerability assessment method for the aviation support system of warships. The proposed method has resolved the ambiguity in evaluation language and cognitive uncertainty in complex system analysis. The composition of the aviation support system and the damage logic of each subsystem are analyzed, and a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of typical damage modes is conducted. The fuzzy fault tree of the aviation support system is established and solved, and the vulnerability assessment of the aviation support system after the explosion impact is implemented. The results demonstrate that considering the system failure rate and the importance of basic events as vulnerability assessment indicators, the aviation support system damage under a weapon attack can be characterized quantitatively. The proposed method could provide a reference for the protection design of the warship aviation support system and the vulnerability assessment of other important systems.